Invited Paper Session at the World Statistics Congress 2023
Population projections produced by public institutions – be they national, regional, or global – find broad consideration in society. They rely on observed data on population trends and hypothesis concerning the future evolution of society, influencing demographic events. The hypothesis flowing in population scenarios thus have to account for all major societal and environmental developments that may affect the population. In this regard, researchers increasingly highlight the necessity for demographers to more explicitly address the ongoing changes of the natural environment and the world climate when projecting population, by an interdisciplinary approach (Muttarak 2021, Van Dalen and Henkens 2021, Lutz 2017). Whereas climate-scenarios always consider population trends in their hypothesis, today the contrary is not necessarily the case.
This invited paper session wants to bring together experts from demography, climate and public health research in order to discuss the following questions:
- Where does international demographic research stand in taking into account climate change impact in population projections?
- To what extent is it pertinent and possible to model evolutions in such highly complex systems – for the world or for specific regions or countries? What can be the role of SSPs in this context?
- How can international and national official statistics take into account climate change in their population projections? What is the relevance of this for fact-based policy-making?
The results of this session’s talks and discussions should give orientation to NSOs and other public institutions dealing with population projections.
Chair: Johanna Probst, Demography and Migration section of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office
Panellists:
Raya Muttarak, Professor of Demography at the department for Statistical Sciences of the University of Bologna, IIASA
Leiwen Jiang, Senior associate at the Population Council of New York, Professor at Asian Demographic Research Institute of Shanghai University
John Wilmoth, Director of the United Nations Population Division
Tammy Glazer, Project leader climate migration/population trends at the AI for good lab of Microsoft